The hottest three policy directions for new energy

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The three major policy directions of new energy logistics vehicles in 2018

however, under this background, the two core influencing factors of the new energy logistics vehicle market - right of way and subsidies have not yet been implemented, which makes the market in 2018 more severe and confusing

the industry generally believes that if the subsidy declines, but the row advantage of new energy logistics vehicles is correspondingly increased, the overall market will not be greatly negatively affected. Therefore, the key to the market prospect of the new energy logistics vehicle software test system in 2018 is to see the decline of subsidies and the progress of the right of way advantage

recently, high tech electric vehicles have received a lot of information from car companies and other sources. In 2018, the subsidies for new energy vehicles and the right of way for logistics vehicles will undergo major changes, and the assessment standard for 30000 km will be further adjusted

the industry believes that these three policy directions are of great significance to the market pattern of new energy logistics vehicles in 2018. Next, let's take a look at these three policy directions and their possible impacts. 2. After start-up, it will first be affected by the operation of empty machines

logistics vehicles

(I) the subsidy has declined by 40% or more

according to industry news, the subsidy was significantly reduced by 40%-50% in 2018. Senior engineer electric vehicles learned from several heads of vehicle enterprises and battery enterprises that this subsidy reduction scheme is basically true

it is reported that the subsidy coefficient in 2018 will be implemented according to 0.5 or 0.7 times of the 2017 standard, and the month will be the subsidy transition period

among them, special new energy vehicles will still be subsidized by grades in 2018. The part exceeding 30kwh (included) is reduced from 1500 yuan/kwh to 900kwh; On June 30, it fell to 8.5 billion euros 0 kWh (inclusive), which was reduced from 1200 yuan/kwh to 750 yuan/kwh; The part exceeding 50kwh decreased from 1000 yuan/kwh to 650 yuan/kwh

the industry chain is greatly affected by the rise in vehicle prices

it is understood that the decline in subsidies not only has a direct impact on the car enterprises, but also has a great impact on the new energy logistics vehicle market and the entire industry chain

according to senior engineer electric vehicles, in order to absorb the price pressure caused by the decline of subsidies, car enterprises have put forward a large price reduction requirement for auto parts, especially the three power enterprises, and even changed the power battery type; In addition, many car companies have raised vehicle prices

1. Increase in vehicle prices and 1. Increase in pressure on vehicle prices and dealers

it is reported that the decline in subsidies will lead to further increase in the price of new energy logistics vehicles. A number of auto companies confirmed to senior engineer electric vehicles that they would increase their vehicle prices in 2018. According to a car company, in 2018, the price of pure electric micro noodles will rise by 5000 to 10000 yuan, and the increase will be even greater for models with larger loading capacity

this is the result of the car companies digesting a considerable part of the costs. It is understood that if the subsidy declines by 40%, the pure electric micro subsidy will be reduced by about 30000 on the basis of 2017, and the pure electric light truck subsidy will be reduced by 50000, while the subsidy for electric vehicles with larger loading capacity will be reduced by even more

as we all know, since the price is much higher than that of fuel vehicles at the same level with the strong support of the state, new energy logistics vehicles have encountered considerable obstacles in the promotion. Therefore, this round of price increase will sharply increase the market pressure faced by vehicle enterprises and dealers

according to a dealer, "the increase in vehicle prices has led to a sharp increase in the company's financial pressure. It was originally planned to purchase 300 pure electric light trucks in 2018, but now the cost of these cars will increase by millions. Moreover, the most important thing is that the rent of cars is rising, which is difficult to rent."

2. Three power enterprises are under pressure

because the subsidy in 2018 has declined sharply, auto enterprises must find ways to absorb this part of the cost pressure. Auto enterprises require auto parts, especially the three power enterprises to reduce prices substantially. These enterprises spread the pressure to the upstream, which greatly affected the whole new energy logistics vehicle industry chain

for example, in terms of electric motor control, car enterprises require electric motor enterprises to reduce by more than 20% on the basis of 2017, which makes the electric motor control enterprises with extremely low profits "under great pressure"

according to the senior management of many motor enterprises, the price of motor system has been close to transparency, especially the price of electronic control system for commercial vehicles has reached the limit. A person in the industry said frankly: "before the new energy vehicles have not been sold in large quantities, the cost of electric machinery enterprises is very high, and at this stage, the comprehensive procurement cost of electric machinery has increased by 10%-20%. If the price of electric machinery is reduced by more than 20% in 2018, many enterprises will not be able to live."

in terms of batteries, logistics vehicle enterprises require that the price of power batteries be controlled at 1 2 yuan/wh. You know, in the context of soaring prices of nickel and cobalt raw materials, power battery enterprises have become "sandwich layer", bearing the dual pressure from upstream and downstream. Therefore, in order to reduce the cost of power batteries, many car companies will replace ternary batteries with soft packs and square lithium iron phosphate

(II) 30000 km assessment reduced to 20000 km

it is understood that in the actual freight scene, the average daily mileage of a vehicle is 100 km -200 km. This means that it takes 0 Five years, plus the nearly one-year subsidy declaration and review cycle, the time for car companies to get subsidies needs 1 5 years

according to the person in charge of a logistics vehicle enterprise who did not want to be named, due to the advance payment of "30000 kilometers" of state subsidies and local subsidies, the company was burdened with hundreds of millions of bank debts. Now the company's capital chain may break at any time and is on the verge of bankruptcy

(III) the advantages of right of way will be expanded step by step. In 2018, the market is very severe.

the industry believes that subsidies and right of way are the two decisive factors for the development of new energy logistics vehicles, and right of way will even stimulate the electric logistics vehicle market more than subsidies

it is proposed that the electric logistics vehicle can be gradually replaced through the restriction of fuel vehicles, and it may be fully electrified within a year

therefore, in the case of declining subsidies, the acceptance of electric logistics vehicles at the terminal largely depends on the degree of preference and implementation of local row

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